2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 9
East
7. Atlanta Hawks
Summary
Now we’re talking! These “7” teams are both fascinating. It appears the Hawks liked what they saw last year and decided to go all in to try to accelerate their winning timeline which is, you know, what all teams should do when they get some positive momentum from a Young core (pun intended). This team has some great looking young talent and added some really nice complimentary pieces. The thing is though, you don’t win games by assembling talent. I mean, yeah that’s step 1 for sure, but you still have to figure out if players who were good in other environments can come together and play at a high level together…and play enough defense…and share minutes and shots…and figure it all out with a shortened training camp and season. But that’s what makes this team so interesting. Lots of talent, lots of exciting players and new pieces, total mystery as to whether they will be any good. Will definitely be a top 5 league pass team.
Starters
Trae Young
Bogdan Bodanovic (real name)
Cam Reddish
Danilo Gallinari
Clint Capela
Maybe. Or maybe John Collins starts at the 4, they slide Gallo down to the 3 and put Reddish on the bench. But the rumors about them shopping Collins make me think they see him as expendable and so I left him on the bench here. Either way, if Reddish starts living up to his talent, this is a potentially killer lineup….on offense. This also promises to be one of the worst defensive teams ever. Capela is a reasonable rim protector but he will have to do everything as none of the other starters, nor likely significant bench players (other than maybe Collins and Rondo occasionally) looks like a plus defender. And some of these guys like Young and Gallo in particular will be socially distancing on D all season. This could be an historically bad defensive team. But they could also be bonkers on offense. Everyone shoots except for Capela and you have a bunch of smart offensive players who know how to get buckets. They will give opposing scouts nightmares trying to figure out how to guard this group. Get ready for some 142–135 games.
It all starts and finishes with Young. Of all the skilled players here, he is the one guy who has a chance to be transcendent. He apparently has no range or shooting conscience. He has some of the slickest handles in the league and above average passing skill and vision. He gets bullied trying to play D and he gets a bit loose with the ball at times, but he’s also fearless, clutch and always a threat. Sound like anyone else you know? No, no. Not me, but thank you. I mean one Wardell “Steph” Curry of the multiple MVPs and Championship rings.
Now, Young isn’t on Curry’s level, but he’s ahead of Curry’s own pace and he plays more like Curry than anyone else in the league. He’s basically the diet soda version of Curry with uglier form and terrible hair. If he keeps improving, no one will remember or care that he plays no defense. All that said, I’m not 100% sold on him yet. Just like Stackhouse, VC, Kobe, Harold Minor and others failed to truly become the next Jordan they were all promised to be, I’m not sure yet we are looking at the next Curry. Young has to prove he can be efficient and effective on a good team and he has to prove he can get his without depriving everyone else of theirs. He hasn’t had to do that in his very young career. Until he does, I’m going to be skeptical because I’ve been burned too many times watching “the next big thing” put up numbers on bad teams. That’s not necessarily a transferable skill. We will see about Young. And that will start this year.
Bogdanovic was…probably…a good pickup. On the surface, he’s a great shooter, a smart player, a guy who can handle the ball a little to let Trae rest a bit, and a guy who has proven he can be a closer at times. He was highly sought after for just those reasons. He would have been an absolutely perfect fit for the Bucks who tried and failed to work out a sign and trade with the Kings. But that also explains why I have some doubts. He seems perfectly suited to be that key pickup on an already good team that takes you from good to great. Give this guy some established veterans and some defensive minded guys and he’s going to kill it. He would be terrifying on the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers or Klay-less Warriors. But on a young team where everyone is still building their reps and not playing D, he seems good but not ideal. He can still spread the floor and does at least make an effort on D, but Young needs a Joe Dumars more than he needs a Byron Scott. (Just had to work in that super oldhead hoop reference). In other words, Young needs a guy to defend the toughest guard on the other team more than he needs a guy who can fill it up. It’s an improvement, don’t get me wrong, but they may have the Lillard/McCollum “I thought you were getting him” defensive issues.
I really want Reddish to be good. I can’t even say why. He’s just a guy I rooted for when watching the Duke Zions play. Beautiful stroke. Great length and height and athleticism for his position. Seems like a matchup problem waiting to happen. But after a slightly disappointing season at Duke that you could forgive him for because of the guys he was playing with, and a yawn of a first year in the NBA, I’m concerned he’s more Martell Webster than Kevin Durant. With Bogdan and the other talent on this team, they can afford to let Reddish develop slowly so while a big jump would make this team really dangerous, a small incremental step would work just fine. Having this much depth to allow a young player like this to develop is a rare luxury.
Gallo is perfect for this team. He can shoot, post and knows where to be when Young drives and gets stuck mid-air. That should be its own stat category or separately rated skill Some players have a knack for just being in the place you need them to be when a guard drives in and doesn’t have any place to finish. It is one of the things that separates good bigs from great. Al Horford is an absolute master. Enes Kanter is also incredible at this. It’s not the same as rolling off a pick, though that can be part of it. It is more about making yourself available in the space vacated by a rotating defender where you can take a high percentage shot. Watch Kanter sometime. When CJ or Dame drive and have no where to go, watch how often the ball just seems to find him. It is also why not every 6’10” athletic freak is a good rim runner or offensive finisher. You have to know when and where to go. You have to be in sync with your guard. Jokic great. KAT? Still doesn’t get it. Whiteside? One of the worst I’ve seen. But as a shooting big Gallo has that feel. He’s a great release valve for the guards who can also run some iso. Not a great defender but an adequate rebounder. Young will love playing with him.
Atlanta scored Capela when Houston just decided they didn’t need anyone taller than 6’5”. He seems like he might be the Hawks most necessary player as he is the only one who has a chance of guarding someone. He needs to be Tyson Chandler in Dallas for this team to really be next level. Some nights in the regular season he will be what they need. Other nights in the playoffs he will highlight how small, young and soft this team will be on D by the way he stands out. If he misses much time though there will be folding chairs that play better defense than the Hawks. He’s also a pretty good rim runner who will be catching lobs from Young all season definitely adding to the excitement.
Bench
This is a really good bench. Rondo was a brilliant pickup as he has transformed into locker room leader, especially for younger players. Great mentor for Young and others and a great calming presence in big games. He’s a killer in the playoffs and his experience will do wonders for them. And they have Collins, the underrated (except on 2k) Kevin Heurter, the I wanted him as a Blazer Kriss Dunn, Tony Snell, Solomon Hill, their new rookie center Onyeka Okongwu and more. In fact, there isn’t a single guy on the roster who you know going in will never get a stretch of real minutes. Said another way, Atlanta’s bench would still be better than the Knicks. Totally serious. This could give them a sneaky advantage this year as teams are undoubtedly going to need depth more than ever with players suddenly going down with Covid.
Offseason
I don’t know if the Hawks won the off season because the best team in the league also got better. But they were either 1 or 2. Rondo, Bogdan, Gallinari, Dunn, Snell. All those guys can play, fit in and will help them win from the first game. Like I said at the start, management looked at what they had in Young and decided to give him some real pieces to work with. They went from fun little sideshow to serious contender for the second round in a week. We’ll see if they can live up to it, but either way I love the approach. I’m unsure about Okongwu just because I didn’t see him enough, but they could even afford for that pick to take time as young bigs often do. This is a team built to win a lot of games now and in the future. Well done Hawks.
Key to season
Young transforming from a new generation gunner to a team leader on a good team. Can he still average 25ppg AND win AND keep everyone happy about their role AND still be efficient? Jay Crossover could fill it up. When he got going he could score with the best of them. But there was also a reason he didn’t start. Some guys only max out when all they have to focus on is themselves. Young already seems better than that, but now he will face his toughest opponent to date: expectations. Everyone will pick the Hawks as their “dark horse” playoff team in the East. Lots more eyes will be on them and it won’t be cute any more if he hits from half court on 4 for 17 shooting. If he can keep improving in this new environment, those Curry comparisons will make more and more sense. If not, this will just be a disjointed team that can’t guard anyone.
Misc
As much as the pressure is on Young to thrive on a good team, making this a “team” will be the job of head coach Lloyd Pierce. He’s a young former Philly assistant being asked to take a very new team to the playoffs. That could be a very tall ask. Would feel better with someone like Nate McMillan at the helm. The assistants are mostly young and/or unproven guys as well. Pierce is either about to really make a name for himself or have a very short tenure. If this team struggles to win, he might not even last the whole season.
Sneaker Note
First, I recently picked up a pair of the “highlight factory” Jordan 1s and they are some of my favs of all time. I wasn’t a Hawks fan but I loved the old Bird ‘Nique shootouts and these shoes, from the colors to the details are fantastic. Look them up. Second, Trae Young has been playing in perhaps the weirdest basketball shoes ever. They are laceless and look like the liner of an old ski boot. I have no idea how they even stay on much less support Young through quick cuts and lateral movement. They are annoyingly called the Adidas N3xt L3v3l and remain a mystery. I kinda want to get a pair just to see how they work…kinda.
West
7. Phoenix Suns
Summary
Like the Hawks, there is lots to get excited about. But since I used all the words for the Hawks, I’ll try to keep this one shorter. Last year, after Dame ripped the heart out of the OKC franchise, they lost Paul George and Russel Westbrook and replaced them with an aging Chris Paul surrounded by some dudes and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I predicted they would be terrible because even though they still had Steven Adams and Gallinari and a good coach, I assumed they were rebuilding and would jettison all their vets for picks and youth. I was right….just a year too early. Instead, CP3 reminded everyone that he is still alive and in fact, still great. He took that team to the 5th seed and put a scare into the heavily favored Rockets.
Paul proved again that he can elevate the talent around him as few in the game ever have. Well, now he appears primed to do it again and this time with even more talent. He lets Booker play without all the pressure or the need to make plays for others. He will make Ayton look like a completely different player. He will lead, defend, score in the clutch. If he could do it with OKC, then I don’t see why it would be different in Phoenix and that makes this team a playoff team. They have scoring, defense, athleticism and coaching. All they needed was a great PG and they got one of the best to ever lace them up. Phoenix Suns, welcome back to the playoffs. Mark it down. Oh and this team without Paul went 8–0 in a playoff like environment in the Bubble last summer and fully believes they can beat anyone.
Starters
Chris Paul
Devin Booker
Jae Crowder
Dario Saric
Deandre Ayton
I love that group. Love it. Crowder, Paul and Ayton can defend. They rebound. They all shoot. Smart players who go hard. This team should just fit. Great pieces and great PG to put them together.
I’ve already said enough about Paul. Injuries to him and teammates have hurt his overall resume, but he’s a first ballot HOFer and top 10 PG of all time. He shoots, passes, defends and leads. Most importantly he makes players better. He is like a less flashy, less Canadian Steve Nash who also defends and yells at everyone.
Look, this team isn’t winning a title, but with Paul they should finally be a winner. Been a long draught in the desert. Paul will bring the rain.
Like with Trae Young, we should finally get to see if Booker can still play at a top level when he is on a good team and doesn’t have the ball and greenlight on every possession. Will he be Russell Westbrook needing to dominate the ball regardless of who else is on the team? Or will he be humble enough to let Paul give him a real shot at the scoring title? Personally, I’ve been saying that the only difference between CJ McCollum and Booker was their circumstances. And I’ve had serious doubts that Book can lead a good team. He will get to prove me and all the other doubters wrong this year if he can check his ego and take another step forward. Make no mistake, even with Paul, this team will only be as good as Booker’s ability to adjust.
Crowder was a brilliant pick up. Doesn’t need the ball. Happy to guard 3s or 4s at a high level. Brings some edge and physicality. And can shoot to keep the floor spread. Needs zero percent of Booker’s spotlight or the ball in his hands and will just show up and make this team better and tougher every night.
Saric is….well…kinda good. He is not as good a shooter as everyone thinks he should be and has no elite skill. He can post smaller guys, but struggles defending them. He is an ok rebounder and passer. On the other hand, he’s been playing with guys who don’t know how to get him the ball. I predict he has his best season in a while playing with Paul. If he doesn’t, then we finally know who he really is.
Deandre Ayton, thanks to injuries and playing for a bad team, has gone under the radar as much as any top picked big I can remember. He has been nearly forgotten. Well, get ready. He is my early pick for MIP thanks to all the easy baskets he’s going to get this year. Catching lobs, open 3s and low pressure post ups will go nicely with another year learning how to play NBA defense to make this his coming out party. This team will win and Ayton will be the biggest beneficiary of the new players and the additional spotlight. Don’t wait too long to draft Ayton on your fantasy team this year. If he stays healthy, he’s going to be reminding Suns fans of STAT….but if he could also shoot.
Bench
Ok….that was the good news. The bad news is the bench is thin and weak. I like Jalen Smith but he’s a rookie big. Mikal Bridges, Jevon Carter and Cheick Diallo have shown signs of life, but none of them will really be scaring opponents any time soon. The starters are going to have to log heavy minutes and if Covid comes calling, they could be in bad shape. This could be the one thing (other than Harden staying in Houston and playing hard and leading them back with a rejuvenated Wall) to keep them out of the playoffs. They will be very vulnerable to injury and have some guys with that history and they may be completely gassed by the end of the year. This could be a problem.
Offseason
Getting Paul made this a great offseason. Losing Oubre to the Warriors hurts and they could have done a better job filling out the roster with minimum guys or cheap guys like Kriss Dunn or the like. Jalen Smith was, I think, a great pick but I also think he may not help much this year. Would have liked to see them add one more piece, even if just to the bench. Like a Morris brother or maybe a DJ Augustin.
Key to season
Health. This team is good but shallow and losing Paul or Booker for any length of time will spell certain doom. Ayton also needs to take another step toward improvement and Booker learning to win will be key, but more than anything this team has to stay healthy all season long and save some energy for the postseason.
Misc
Love Monty Williams as the coach here. Great player friendly coach and friends with CP who he has coached with success before. Great fit for the team and should be able to get them rolling.
Sneaker Note
Did you know Nike/Jordan is still making signature Chris Paul sneakers? It’s true. But he is the forgotten star on their roster right now. His latest models have been ok, but just ok and received no marketing or hype of any kind. He had a couple good models over the years, but it’s honestly even hard to remember that he’s a signature athlete. Elsewhere, I like the trend of taking guys like Booker and having him rep an established shoe like the Kobes, but also giving him his own lifestyle models. That way you don’t have to give him his own shoe to let fans rock their favorite player’s footwear. Adidas, are you listening?
Number 6 teams coming soon.
