2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 5

East

11. Orlando Magic

I don’t know what’s going on with this team. They have talent. Last year they were better than expected. But what’s their plan? What are they trying to be? If it is creating a franchise that is easy to forget about while still making the playoffs, they seem to be nailing it. But they were quiet in free agency. Didn’t make any big trades and don’t really seem to have the young star power to make a big leap otherwise. They are not rebuilding. They are not improving. They are not contenders. I don’t get it.

And, apparently I’m not alone. Orlando leads the league in trade rumors, I think because other executives around the league see what I see and assume their aging veteran “stars” will be available as Orlando must be ready to start over. But here we are again about to start the season with Vuc, Fournier, and Gordon still very much on the roster despite having been traded 1000 times in internet forums.

And I think I have them ranked this low out of some frustration with their inability to choose a direction. Because the reality is, they could very much be in the playoff hunt again with health and development of their young players. But sneaking in to get whacked by a superior team would seem to get old….says the Portland fan with apparently no sense of irony….

If the season started today, their starters would likely be:

Markelle Fultz

Evan Fournier

Aaron Gordon

Jonathan Isaac

Nikola Vucevic

This is another team that’s tough to determine the starters. They could start Terrance Ross or even more likely Al-Farouq Aminu at one of the forwards so Gordan could play the 4. They could start Michael Carter-Williams at the PG or possibly even new draft pick Cole Anthony. They have Mo Bamba coming off the bench making us all wonder if he is a good player or not. So, they have some depth and some lineup flexibility. But I don’t like their PG situation for this season and that is going to be an issue I think.

I believe Cole Anthony will prove to be one of the steals of the draft. I’ve seen him play live and a bunch of times in college and that guy has it. His college stats weren’t great, but I’m a believer. High IQ, good handles, good floor command, adequate D, adequate shooting. Once he gets on a team that doesn’t need him as much so he can change his shot selection, I think he will be really good. Better than Fultz who was the number 1 pick. But that’s probably not this year. That’s a couple years from now. So this year you have an improving Fultz who still can’t really shoot and isn’t a great coach on the floor leader. And MCW who can’t shoot at all. Fournier can play some 1 in closing lineups so that’s something. Fultz made huge strides last year and may have cemented himself as the PG here, but I’m worried about their floor general.

Also, Gordon is miscast in the role of a go too scorer and closer. He’s more hops than skill and the NBA is becoming a tougher and tougher place for guys like that. I know Portland went hard after him and ended up instead with the diet cola version of him in Derrick Jones Jr. It makes me wonder if Orlando is overvaluing him on a team like this. He’s not a great defender or rebounder or shooter. He may be the best dunker in the league, but that only matters if the judges agree on one particular weekend in February (or March this year). Vucevic is a scoring machine but can’t guard anyone and rarely even tries. Same for Fournier, though he is probably the Magic’s best player. And then you have a bunch of young pieces who don’t really seem ready.

So, there is enough here to make it back to the playoffs and maybe go as high as 7. It is easier to get excited about some of the other teams, but this team has as much talent as anyone in the bottom tier. So, if it comes together or some of the young guys take a big step, they could end up being tough. I just doubt it.

Sneaker Note: There seems to have been a quiet resurgence of the Penny Hardaway shoes. He wore a bunch of foampositeish shoes back in the day and his signature shoes were very popular especially during the “Little Penny” commercial years. If you’ve never seen them, youtube them immediately. Chris Rock is brilliant. What’s strange is that I never see anyone wearing them. They have been retroed (sneakerhead for re-released), and I hear a bunch of buzz on sneaker shows and online and what not, but I don’t see anyone wearing them ever. Are people just stocking them? Are they waiting for basketball to come back so they can wear an incredibly heavy shoe? Is this regional? Not sure. I will say, they were never my thing at all, but I do wish Penny could have done his thing for longer. He was all fun.

West

11. San Antonio Spurs

After declaring them dead for about 5 years, the basketball world was finally right. They still have one of the best coaches ever and a collection of talent that means they will beat whoever is on the floor on a given night, but they have slid a step back and now the playoffs, in a loaded West, seems pretty unlikely. Now they are full of guys who are good, but older and don’t really match the analytics of the new NBA. Mid-range shooters who work best in the half court. I don’t really see their next “star” here either, which means they, like the Magic are a bit in limbo. Many expected them to trade Aldridge and/or DeRozan this offseason, but as of yet that has yet to happen. Many thought either of those guys would be a good fit in Portland. But I think LMA burned that bridge on the way out of town and DeRozan would have been a nice pickup but is old and helps mostly on offense where less help is needed. But those guys are still on the team and they seem set to run it back. They came close last year but by “close” I mean close to making the playoffs and getting routed by the Lakers. Like the Magic, it is time for them to pick a direction. Unlike they Magic, they don’t seem to have as much in the way of young talent.

If the season started today, their starters would likely be:

Dejounte Murray

Derrick White or Lonnie Walker

DeMar DeRozan

LeMarcus Aldridge

Jakob Poeltl

Murray is the real stud here honestly. He’s like a poor man’s Ja Morant when he’s really going and his speed and length make him a problem on both ends. He would be much better in an offense that wanted to get out and run, but the two scoring stars here, Aldridge and DeRozan are plodding half court guys at this stage in their career. They have good players off the bench in Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, Trey Lyles and new draft picks Jones and Vassell. Keep an eye on Vassell in particular. He seems like a great potential running made for Murray and the kind of guy that the Spurs find that everyone else missed. He’s athletic, smart, can score from all over the floor and apparently a very hard worker. I also like Jones as a bit of an underrated pro. He doesn’t project as a starter, but could be a very solid backup 1 for years and those guys are valuable.

Unless this team explodes out of the gate, look for them to be active around the trade deadline. Teams like the Bucks and Clippers who are desperate to win now but aren’t quite there, and didn’t have the off season they wanted will make LMA and DeRozan prime targets. And it is time for SA to start over, unload those contracts and start building around youth. And that makes me wonder how long Pop stays in the league. Seems like the transition from annual contender to rebuilder is really hard for veteran coaches.

One last note about coaches, one of my personal hopes for the NBA is that Pop retires soon and names Becky Harmon as his successor. Would be a very Pop move who is very vocal about social justice and equality issues. And I think Harmon deserves a shot and it would be a great story for the NBA.

SA will be a tough out this year as they always are, but I don’t see them climbing much higher than this and not as high as 8.

Sneaker Note: As noted earlier, New Balance got back into basketball with former Spur Kawhi Leonard. Current Spur Dejounte Murray joined the NB family and his BLM PE from last season is pretty sick. Spur’s accent colors make it really pop and I actually like it better than any of the other colorways of this shoe. I don’t think NB has quite found its footing in basketball yet, but given the resurgence of the entire brand this last year and some of the other creativity seen in their other shoes, I’d keep an eye on them. Watching Murray might be the right place to look.

Keep tuning back in as we continue the countdown.