2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 15
Here is my final NBA Preview post with the number 1 teams for each conference. And if you’ve been waiting for the Blazers preview you can find it here. if you want to read the rest of the posts, you can find them here: https://stumptown1.medium.com/
East
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Summary
Well, posting this after a 20 point beat down by the Knicks isn’t going to do much for my credibility, but then opening up a can on the Heat should help even that out. And when the best team in the East (last year) gets significantly better talent in the offseason to pair with its existing core, I don’t know how you rank them lower. They have a 2 time MVP, shooting, size, defense and a great coach. They also have 3 great scoring options and a great point guard and deep bench. The only question mark about this team is can they actually win in the playoffs. They have had mild success but the shocking loss to the Heat in the bubble has left serious doubts. They didn’t just lose, they had no answers for a vastly less talented team.
This is partly why I think it is dumb that the MVP is selected before the playoffs start. Who cares if Giannis was the best player before the games that matter most. Don’t we rightly place most of the player evaluation weight on the ability to win the most important games? Jordan was great during the regular season but he’s the GOAT because of the 6 rings.
And it is significant here because for all of Giannis’s ability and skill, he has yet to lead the Bucks to the finals which means he has always lost when the games get bigger. Is that highlighting a flaw in his game? For example, does his lack of shooting ultimately make him too easy to gameplan for in the course of a series? Or does he lack the killer instinct the best of the best have and use to close out games? Or was this really the result of the supporting cast letting him down? Or is it fluke? I think it’s too big a sample size at this point to be fluke, but I’m also not ready to write Giannis off as a guy who’s “not clutch” or can’t win the big one. He’s still really young and I think he’s still in that Jordan trying to figure out how to beat the Celtics and Pistons stage of his career.
This year will be telling. The Bucks now have the best supporting cast GA has ever had and should be poised for revenge. Of course, just when I start thinking that, this year will be different, suddenly he can’t make a freethrow.
I don’t know who will ultimately win the East of course. Totally unknowable factors like Covid and injuries and trades will likely be huge factors. What I do know is that based on current talent and circumstances, the Bucks SHOULD win the East. They have the most talent, the best player and enough experience now that they should stop losing games like they just lost to the Knicks. So, Bucks, time to step up and prove it.
Starters
Jrue Holiday
Donte DiVincenzo
Khris Middleton
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Brook Lopez
Four of these 5 starters have been All-Stars. The one who wasn’t was the most valuable player of the Final 4 and an NCAA champion. Talent shouldn’t be an issue. And the biggest upgrade in talent came at PG when Holiday replaced Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is a fine player. He is a strong defender and good finisher. At times he is an effective shooter and playmaker too. The trouble is, those times are not frequent enough for him to be a really really good player. Holiday, on the other hand is one of the best on-ball guard defenders in the game, is also a great finisher and is consistently a high level playmaker and shooter. He can play on or off the ball and most nights will have an advantage over his opponent on at least one end of the floor. And he’s proven he can play well in pressure situations. If you aren’t’ getting one of the elite guys, Holiday was the perfect add for this team. He can make Giannis a finisher at the end of games instead of a ball handler and he can finish games himself. Big talent add.
DiVincenzo is a bit of a surprise to me. I thought he might struggle in the NBA as a non-dominant athlete without an elite skill. But his athleticism is probably better than advertised and since he plays smart and hard every night, his collection of pretty good skills make him a solid addition. They don’t want someone taking a bunch of shots from Giannis, Middleton and Holiday anyway, so the fact that he is mostly a hustle guy who plays D and has a good catch and shoot game further makes him a good fit.
Did you know in Milwaukie they call Khris Middleton “Kash”? I need a list of random nicknames that only exist in home arenas. Like, did you know the Blazers called Wes Matthews, “Ironman”? Why? No idea. I bet there’s stuff like that everywhere. Anyway, Kash is a great player. He shoots so he’s a good fit alongside Giannis (the key skill every Bucks player has to have) and he can also create and is a solid maybe even better than solid defender. His only drawback as a true №2 is that he isn’t great just taking his man off the dribble to create a shot for himself when the offense breaks down at the end of the shot clock. He’s not terrible, just not elite. This was part of the issue last year. They lacked a reliable player to get Giannis’s back because Kash just isn’t that guy. But he is a really really good player and shooter and I think has a chance to hit is peak with Jrue Holiday carrying the playmaking load.
Then there’s Giannis. Did you know he is only 26? That means he may not even have hit his prime yet. And he plays like he’s playing on a nerf hoop against children. There is really nothing else like him in the league. He doesn’t have Lebron’s vision or passing skills and he still can’t shoot but he is so long, athletic and relentless there is no guarding him. He scores and rebounds and can handle the ball. He’s even played some PG. He is one of only a small group of true franchise players in the league and he’s one of the best among them. Like I said in the summary, the real issue is can Giannis become “the guy” in a playoff series? And then another…and another. I think he can.
One more thing. If you’ve never heard his life story, you should look it up. Sharing one pair of sneakers with his brothers, having nothing but family. Then an NBA superstar before he’s old enough for an insurance discount. It’s incredible.
Brook Lopez is a weird cool story on its own. Not rags to riches by any means, but he was able to make the rare basketball leap from back to the basket post player to legitimate 3 point shooting threat. He’s always been a good offensive player with good touch around the hoop, but being able to step outside and shoot made him a good fit for the Bucks and creates another matchup problem for every team that plays them. He can guard down low, but pulls other bigs out.
Bench
Bobby Portis, Torrey Craig, DJ Augustin, Pat Connaughton are all better than average rotation/bench players. Between them they have length, shooting, defense, athleticism, the whole package. Plus Portis and Augustin can both catch fire and carry the second unit scoring. Oh, and only Connaughton was there last year and he’s the worst of the 4. In other words, not only is this team deep, they are better and deeper than the 60 win team from last year. It will likely take a while before they all gel. But when they do, this is one of the best starting 5s in the league combined with one of the best benches. And that’s why they are number 1 on this list.
Offseason
The Bucks’ offseason was great and then embarrassing and then really good, then AMAZING. Gone are George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, a ton of future draft picks, Ilyasova and Wes Matthews. In their place come Holiday, Portis, Augustin and Torrey Craig. They actually drafted RJ Hampton who slid below his draft projection, but had to be shipped off as part of the Holiday trade. So, they didn’t do anything in the draft that will help this year…not that they needed to. But they almost got one of the Bogdanovices which would have been amazing. He would have been the ideal player to add, especially if they could have still gotten Holiday. But they screwed up the deal and lost him to the Hawks. They rebounded by picking up Portis, Augustin and Craig who are really nice pieces.
The amazing part was Giannis deciding to sign the full length extension to stay with Milwaukee for the foreseeable future. Basically a make or break move for the franchise and a heartbreaker for Miami and others hoping to lure him to their team. He could have waited until the offseason but committed now and thereby saved the team from a year of questions. Great great thing for the Bucks.
Key to season
Keeping everyone healthy and on track for the playoffs. This team doesn’t have to be at its best to be a playoff team. Then the key is whether this team added enough to support Giannis making a big leap to playoff closer. I like their chances…obviously.
Misc
The Bucks uniforms, logo and gear is surprisingly strong. Good for them.
Sneaker Note
The first version of Giannis’s signature shoe, the “Zoom Freak 1” is the best basketball shoe I’ve played in in a decade. Light, cushioned, responsive, grippy, hugs the foot just right. I love it. It’s a basic silhouette, but they had some cool colorways and you could even customize using the Nike ID function. I like the look of the Zoom Freak 2 and they again have some great colorways, but the fit isn’t quite as good for my feet. They narrowed the toe box and now it squeezes the forefoot a bit. Still playable but not quite as good.
Just for fun, my favorite shoes to actually play in right now, in order, are the Zoom Freak 1, the Kyrie 4, the KD 13 and then Kyrie 3 low.
West
1. Portland Trailblazers
Summary
Hey, it’s my preview. I can put them where I want. Truthfully this is not the best team in the NBA. In fact 2 games in, this was one of the worst teams in the NBA. They pulled out a narrow win over a completely undermanned and pretty terrible Rockets team after getting destroyed by Utah. Some of that is new chemistry and rotations to work through. Some of that is familiar problems like the fact that the Blazers don’t even make shooters uncomfortable, much less play actual defense on them. Honestly, including the last 2 preseason games, this is some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen. The offense looked shaky. The new guys looked clueless. Nurk looks like he did before he got good. And the young guys looked overmatched. That’s the bad news. The good news is it can and most likely will get much much better…and it may not take as long as I feared. In the 3rd game against the Lakers you got a glimpse of what this team could become. Very good defensive forwards, guards who make your life miserable trying to guard them and a center rotation that can score, rebound and pass. If what we saw against the Lakers keeps up, this could be a Western Conference finals team.
One thing that can and should happen immediately is that the Blazers should bench Melo. Giving his minutes to literally anyone else on the team would likely improve this team dramatically. The problem is not that Melo has gotten worse it is that he is who he has been. He’s a streaky scorer who only contributes by playing iso and very occasionally hitting a catch and shoot 3 and plays zero defense. When he plays with Kanter as he is doing in the current rotation the Blazers are unwatchable. In the second game I watched Harden and 5 undrafted replacement Rockets destroy the Blazers for a half mostly because the Blazers bench could not stop their bench. Their bench? Those 5 undrafted players. Kanter is probably the worst defensive center in the league. Melo would likely rate bottom 5 at the 4 spot. So you cannot ever…ever…ever allow them to occupy the court at the same time. If you do, any 5 players from any NBA team has the advantage no matter who else the Blazers have out there. For a team with real hopes for a deep playoff run, that is unacceptable.
So, what happens when Melo misses a game? More minutes for Trent Jr. (who went off for 28 against the Lakers) and the defensive minded forwards that the Blazers need to stop teams, especially when Kanter plays, made life miserable for the Lakers’ offense. And the Blazers played by far their best game and beat the best team in the league. They had bodies for Lebron and AD and plenty of offense. They don’t need melo’s scoring and if he plays, better players that fit better don’t see the floor as much. What’s that going to look like when Zach Collins is healthy? Can we get a Harry Giles sighting?
Most of the other improvement will have to come over time. Maybe months. Jones Jr. and Covington should both improve the defense, but not by locking guys up. They are good only in the context of good team defense where their length and active hands cause problems. See, e.g., the Laker game. But good team defense requires everyone to know their spots, their rotations, and the tendencies of their teammates. I’m not sure you can get any of that without simply logging minutes together and the Blazers haven’t had time to do that. So we will have to be patient and hopefully they can win enough games before things start to click to still be in the playoff hunt when they do.
Until then, there are going to be some bad losses in our future…and maybe a bunch of them. After that, this team should have the talent and pieces to compete at the very highest level. Has that started early as seen against the Lakers? Or will there still be growing pains? Hoping for the former. So, are they the best team? No. A top 10 team? Not right now. But they have the potential to beat everyone if things go exactly right and come together soon enough. So, because they could be 1 and are my favorite team, 1 it is.
Starters
Dame
CJ
Derrick Jones Jr.
Robert Covington
Nurk
Dame is the best rapper in the NBA and now he is also the best point guard. In fact, I would rank him currently as the 6th best player in the whole league regardless of position. In order: Lebron, GA, Kawhi, KD, AD, Dame. On top of that he may be the best leader in the NBA. He has helped establish a really healthy culture in Portland where players like to come and stay when they get here (though not prized FAs of course). He makes CJ better by drawing double teams and also deferring to him when he gets rolling as he did earlier against Houston. He cannot physically impose his will on a game like some of the other league superstars but the combination of skill, attitude, clutch, leadership and heart make him a deadly foe. Even his on ball defense has improved dramatically along with the rest of his game such that he is no longer a liability in that area. The only weakness in his game is that he’s not a great lob passer. That hasn’t mattered because Portland has been completely without lob catchers until this year. But with Jones Jr. flying around and Giles perhaps waiting in the wings and Roco also looking quite bouncy, it’s time for Dame to up his lob game.
CJ is great. While I might put Curry and Kyrie ahead of him for handles, no one in the league creates as much space for a shot off the dribble as CJ. He’s a master. Great shooter, solid finisher, decent playmaker. He has become the perfect wing man and backup to Dame. Plus, like Dame, he’s such a good guy he is fun to root for. His name always comes up in trade rumors but I hope we keep him. All of that said, I’ve been a bit disappointed that he hasn’t attacked his weaknesses and gotten better in areas where he’s not already good. He’s become a clutch player and great scorer but he was already good at those things. He has never been a good or even mediocre defender and he is still awful. He hasn’t really gotten any better at making plays for other people. And maybe most importantly he has yet to learn how to get to the free throw line. In today’s NBA they hand out fouls like candy at a parade and yet CJ creates so much space for himself he rarely draws contact. Dame was the same way to start his career but got better. CJ just hasn’t. So, while he will catch fire and have some great nights, he really only helps with his scoring and that limits his and the Blazers’ ceiling to some degree.
I was surprised to see Jones Jr. on so many lists of coveted free agents this offseason but upon further reflection and review, I get it. He is a good defender both on the ball and in the team concept. His crazy crazy jumping ability makes him a really good help defender at the rim. He needs no plays called for him and can at times be a reasonable catch and shoot 3 point shooter. He still needs to improve there, but his ability to finish above the rim on lobs and putbacks along with his Defense makes him very valuable. And he’s a perfect fit in Portland who doesn’t need scoring but really needs defense.
Covington (or Roco as he is apparently called) is similar to Jones Jr., just not as great a jumper and a better defender on better players. He should also be a better shooter, but he’s actually not quite as good as advertised and his shooting has been completely absent to date. And yet, he was the reason the Blazers beat the Lakers. He is not a lock down defender but he gets his hands everywhere and gets a ton of steals and deflections. Plus he bothers 3s and 4s and rotates well. He’s a smart help defender and hustles the whole game. Playing with Jones, they can switch everything and are virtually interchangeable. The two of them slowed Lebron and AD just enough to let the Blazers outscore the rest of the Lakers and that’s the difference. When Covington rediscovers his shot, watch out. I will also say it is a bit weird watching him play. He has a Sam Perkins like casualness to his game that seems like he’s not trying that hard, but that’s misleading. Just strange.
The Bosnian Beast is healthy again and ready to pick up where he left off before injury. He is still too casual with his finishes at the rim and i am not convinced he should ever shoot a 3, but he anchors the defense and more importantly has become a great passer. He forces too many passes on guarded cuts, but that will improve as the season goes on. He is completely essential to the Blazers on both sides as he is great as a pick and roll screener and also good on the defensive glass. Smart player that doesn’t get enough credit.
Bench
They finally have one! Melo, Hood, Collins (when health…which should be his new nickname), Trent Jr., Simons and Kanter all expect minutes in regular rotation. Kanter is an ideal back up 5. He rebounds and can simplify the offense by just receiving the ball on the post and getting quality looks. He is the worst defensive center in the league, so that’s an issue, but in limited minutes you get more than you lose. Hood doesn’t look back from injury yet so far, but he can be a helpful piece once his legs and confidence return. Good defender and shooter and underrated post player. Collins will come in and foul people a lot. And then get hurt. But he is a reasonable defender and I like his toughness. Simons just isn’t ready. Looks like he could be a nice player but isn’t ready. I would take him out of the rotation and give Trent Jr. all his minutes. Trent Jr. is legit. He proved it in the bubble. He reminded everyone against the Lakers. He is a bulldog on defense and a knockdown shooter who can also create. He needs all the back up PG minutes and can even play with Dame and CJ at times. Put him and Hood together off the bench and the two lead guards should finally be able to get some real rest.
And then there’s Melo. I wasn’t mad the Blazers resigned him. He helped at times last year. He can still get buckets on anyone. But the best thing he could do for the Blazers is get hurt or retire. He doesn’t fit anywhere in the rotation, especially when Zach is back. He can’t play with Kanter at all as noted above, but Jones Jr. and Roco have such great potential as starting forwards, you can’t start him either. Plus Trent and Collins and Hood will all need minutes and I haven’t even gotten to Giles yet. It is not coincidence that the Blazers best game came with Melo sitting out. He stops the offense because he only does one thing and that is catch the ball in the midpost and jab step and pump fake for 20 seconds before shooting. I get that the guys seem to like him and he hits some big shots, but he takes more than he gives at this stage and he stands in the way of better players getting time and shots. He needs to go.
I also want to mention Giles here for a moment. I know it is only preseason and I have a bit of bias for him since I wanted the Blazers to draft him, but he looked better in the preseason than Zach Collins has ever looked for any stretch in his entire basketball life including Gonzaga. I think Giles is just plain better. He may not be as good a low post defender, but how many low post plays even get called anymore? He is a really good passer and long and athletic. I’m not saying give him 30 minutes, but I’d like to give him a shot to take Melo and Zach’s minutes and see what he can really do. I would prioritize guys like Trent ahead of him, but I would like to see what we have and I think it is better than Collins.
Offseason
The offseason was just brilliant. I loved every move except for (in hindsight) signing Melo back on. They got rid of Whiteside. …. …. … just need a break there to celebrate to myself. They got rid of not super Mario. They turned Ariza into a younger more athletic version of himself in Roco. They signed a young defensive minded athlete which is what they needed most in Jones Jr. and picked up Giles basically for free. I can’t imagine their second round pick Elleby becoming useful, but who knows and who cares? The Blazer addressed need and got younger, more athletic, better on defense and deeper. I have no complaints. Absent signing Giannis or Kawhi or someone like that, this is about as good as it gets for the Blazers. If everyone stays healthy and plays as projected, this should be a better version of the team that went to the Western Conference Finals.
Key to season
A few. How quickly does the team gel on D? Was Trent Jr.’s bubble explosion real or a fluke? I think real. Can we bench Melo without hurting chemistry? Health. Can’t lose Dame, Nurk or CJ for any length. Can we rest Dame and CJ enough for them to make a deep healthy run in the playoffs? This is as good a cast as Dame has ever had since he became Dame. Let’s go!
Misc
I am really, really going to miss going to games until they reopen.
Sneaker Note
Dame has just launched his 7th signature shoe through Adidas. They have been kind of hit and miss. The Dame 1 had a pretty basic but classic silhouette. It was a good shoe to play in as it had lots of cushion but was not terribly distinctive. Still it was a promising start. The Dame 2 was much bulkier and while I love the PDX carpet pair I own, it is a tough shoe to wear on or off the court. I loved the Dame 3 when it first came out. The overall look of the shoe was great but the lacing system and sock like upper made it virtually impossible to loosen or tighten the shoe and so it was not a great shoe for the court and not comfortable to wear for long stretches. The same was true for the 4 which had laces that served a merely decorative function. However, the Dame 4 collab with Bape was a significant sneaker for Dame and Adidias and remains an amazing shoe. The Dame 5 was the low point for the series. It looks a little like a lightweight hiking boot and features an exterior plastic stabilizer that makes it look like the shoe is inside out or just unfinished. There were some cool color ways but overall the shoe was not great. But the line rebounded strong with the Dame 6 which is my favorite. The Pusha T collab is the best but there are a bunch of other cool colorways. It fits a little loose making it tough to wear for basketball, but has great cushioning around the ankle which is an aspect of basketball shoes that are often overlooked. My first pair of Dame 7s are on the way. I like the look of it from pictures online and they feature some great detailing with layers of mesh, but I won’t really know what I have until they get here.
Overall, it is great fun as a Blazer fan to have your best player have a popular signature sneaker especially for a sneaker guy like me. And, while I like many Adidas models, I can’t help thinking what it would be like if Dame had signed with the swoosh.
