2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 14

Below is the penultimate post of my NBA preview counting down to Number 1 in both conferences.

East

2. Miami Heat

Summary

Was it a bubble hot streak or are they for real? That’s really the big question for this team headed into this season. On the one hand, they played much better in the bubble than they did during the regular season for no reason in particular. Same team. No big trades. But then they looked different and knocked off the Bucks and the Celtics. All of that suggests that it was a bit flukey and they should return to earth this season and eventually lose out to their more talented rivals. But I don’t think so. Riley and Spoelstra have established a well defined culture of defense, winning and excellence and this team has bought in. I think what happened in the bubble is that everyone on the team finally knew who they were in the context of the team and fully bought in to the team concept. Butler became the closer. Dragic created offense when they stalled. Bam took a big leap (and got himself PAID as a result) and Robinson and Herro hit a ton of shots.

I’m not saying they will be back in the Finals, but I think they can keep doing what they did in the Bubble and have as good a chance as anyone to at least make a deep playoff run. They don’t have the talent of the Bucks or the star power of the Celtics, Sixers or Nets. But they play together better than any of those teams and can defend and shoot. So I am saying they are for real.

Starters

Goran Dragic

Jimmy Butler

Duncan Robinson

Bam Adebayo

Kelly Olynyk

Goran Dragic was basically forgotten until the playoffs and even still all the hype about the Heat’s unexpected run was around Jimmy and the shooters. But Dragic was may be their most consistent offensive weapon. His ability to create for himself and others was critical and will be again. He is always mentioned in rumors when you hear the Heat searching for another star like Beale or Harden, but I wonder if Coach Spo is secretly hoping against losing his PG. Dragic does everything well and makes very few mistakes. He doesn’t do anything at a “wow” level, but keeps the floor of this team pretty high. Even still he may end up coming off the bench because Herro has become too good not to start.

Jimmy Buckets has had a fascinating career. Overlooked coming out of college, he made a name for himself as the ideal running mate for MVP Derrick Rose in Chicago. He was a defensive nightmare with a bourgeoning offensive game. With Rose scoring at will in those days Butler focused on D and became a borderline star. The kind of guy everyone wanted. Then Rose got hurt and Butler started reading his own praise too much and suddenly started seeing himself as a scoring machine. But he was a mediocre shooter at best and didn’t have the handles or offensive creativity to consistently be a great scorer. So, he went from a guy everyone wanted to a guy who could help no one. He went to Minnesota and alienated all his teammates by dominating the ball and yelling at everyone in practice like he was Jordan. Except he was really a glorified sidekick who hadn’t won anything. He probably set KAT back 3 years in his development and generally hurt that team way more than he helped. But in Miami he has managed to rediscover his defense while morphing into a deadly closer on offense. He is not going to challenge for the scoring title, but his shot is better and even more importantly, he shoots fewer 3s. He has better coaching and a better system for him than ever and is actually rebuilding himself into the star we thought he would become. Miami has talent, but he is the unquestioned alpha only without bearing all of the scoring load. It’s a match made in Basketball heaven (no not French Lick, it’s a metaphor). Butler is now the perfect player for this team and is playing at his peak level. All of that should be factored in before they gamble on bringing in another big star. Jimmy is only good Jimmy in ideal circumstances. Blow that up and you could get Minnesota Jimmy all over again.

You know who had the best catch and shoot shooting season of all time last year? If you guessed Duncan Robinson, you either really know your stuff or you are lying. Robinson looks like a player who would have played with Cousy and Russell for the Celtics before I was born. He looks like he should be hopelessly overmatched against NBA athletes. And yet, his one elite skill is so good and so important, he can actually take over games. And even when he’s not doing that he is the ultimate floor spreader and release valve for the stars in the offense. He’s not a great ball handler, but he moves well without the ball and uses screens expertly. But the key to his success is his release. It is cray quick and comes high so he needs nearly no window to shoot and if he gets it off clean, it’s going in. This means that you don’t have to finish at the rim to be an effective player on the Heat. You just need to draw a defender and then even if you can’t score, you can get your team 3 points by finding Robinson. I cannot overstate how important that is in the modern NBA. He is a liability on Defense for sure, but can afford to be on this team, especially when he shoots like he does.

When the Blazers were drafting in 2017, I was hoping they would draft either Harry Giles or Bam Adebeyo. Giles was a HS phenom who seemed to be sliding because of injuries that shouldn’t limit his NBA potential. That’s the kind of guy you can steal and can change the entire outlook for a team (see, e.g., Michael Porter Jr.). He was tall and had great floor vision and could even shoot a bit. I thought Portland needed a big who could facilitate and play D and I liked Giles. I also liked Bam, though full disclosure I had no idea he would be this good. I thought after watching him in college he could be a high IQ defender who wouldn’t need the ball and could develop his offensive game. I saw him as a smarter, better passing Moe Harkless. Well, the Blazers did draft Giles but only as part of a trade for Zach Collins and let Bam go a few picks later. Zach Collins…who didn’t even start for his college team….who the Blazers famously scouted for like 4 plays before deciding to trade up to take him…who cannot stay healthy or defend without fouling or pass or play as the ball handler or screener on a pick and roll. Zach freaking Collins. Easily the biggest draft mistake of the Olshey era. And it turns out I wasn’t exactly spot on about Giles. He needed a year to get healthy himself and hasn’t exactly taken the league by storm since. I still believe he has the talent to help a team and he’s still really young, but he’s not yet what I thought he would be. But watching Bam play in the bubble as the absolutely ideal fit for the Blazers was really tough. That guy got really really really good. He may be the best facilitator on the team. Can play small ball 5 and can guard every forward position at a very high level. He finishes, creates and shoots just enough and would make every NBA team better. He’s being paid like a franchise guy and he’s not that and never will be. But he is exactly who you want with your stars in the modern NBA. Wish he was in Portland.

I guess Olynyk will start? I’m not totally sure. This lineup will move around a bit I think as they try to figure out how to get Herro more minutes without taking a huge dive on defense and rebounding. Olynyk is a good shooter and adequate rebounder and even an ok defender. He’s not a star but creates matchup problems because if you have a great rim protecting or post up big, you will have a hard time playing him because Olynyk can shoot so well. He’s solid. He probably won’t finish games because Bam will slide to the 5 but he’s fine.

Bench

Tyler Herro is the star here for sure. So much in fact they may have to force him into the starting lineup. He’s thought of mostly as a shooter and he is, but he’s more than that. He can create for himself and was on a very steep improvement curve last season. He looks like he could become a Klay Thompson type player really with maybe even better shot creating ability. While he’s on the bench he’s Manu, but Manu would have started for most teams and he could and might start for the Heat. It’s all a matter of finding lineups that work. The Heat also signed Avery Bradley who fits perfectly as a back up ball handler, fierce wing defender and adequate shooter. Same for long-time vet and former all star Iguodala. Then they also have Meyers Leonard and Moe Harkless and Kendrick Nunn who can all play a little as long as you don’t have to rely on them and the Heat do not.

Offseason

I think you’d have to say the offseason was a small step backward. They lost Derrick Jones Jr. and Jae Crowder both of whom were good fits and got significant minutes. Crowder in particular gave them flexibility on both ends and is a really good 3 and D forward with a toughguy mentality. They will miss both those guys. Getting Bradley helps make up much of that ground except for rebounding and it opens up more minutes for Herro which they probably needed to do. Other than that I’m not a huge fan of Precious Achiuwa based on what I saw in college, but at the 20th pick not a big deal. First team all NBA name though.

Key to Season

Stay together. I just mean mentally. Keep that focus and team mentality that allowed them to play cinderella in the Bubble. Don’t let anyone get too big a head and then see incremental improvement from Bam and Herro. If they can do that, then they remain real contenders in the East.

Misc

Like the Spurs for the last 20 years the real MVP of this team is their culture. Riley and Spoelstra have built something that allows them to move pieces in and out, develop they’re young guys into stars and win without having a super team of explosive talent. They have less star power than all of their rivals, but but beat them all last year because of culture.

Sneaker Note

Long time Jordan athlete Jimmy Butler left to go to Li Ning which provides a funny window into the basketball sneaker world. Longtime Li Ning (a Chinese company) athlete D Wade is enormously popular in China and surrounding Asian countries. You couldn’t name a single D Wade shoe and you’ve never seen one at Footlocker because they didn’t market his shoe over here at all. He actually had some really cool shoes under his “Way of Wade” brand and crushed it in Asia. So, what happened is, kind of like how there were a bunch of Rockets fans in China when Yao Ming was playing in Houston, there are a ton of Heat fans in China now. Of course it helped that Wade won titles with Lebron there and Nike also has a big presence in China, but having the face of Li Ning’s foray into American Basketball playing in Miami created a buzz for the Heat. So, now that Butler has established himself as the current star, Li Ning wisely threw the big bag at Jimmy to parlay their success with Wade. And so Butler followed Wade yet again. They both went to Marquette. They both made their name first in Chicago. They both starred for the Heat and they both left Jordan to make gobs of money in China with Li Ning.

Gibson says that Duncan Robinson should sign with Chinese rival shoe company Anta to solidify himself as the next Klay Thompson. Sounds smart.

Also, the South Beach color schemes and vibe are a great fit for sneakers. Lebron’s shoes from his time in Miami are some of the most coveted. Nike needs to start cooking up some good PEs for Herro whose name works so perfectly for marketing. Let’s get that done.

West

2. Los Angeles Lakers

Summary

The best team with the best chance to win it all is the LA Lakers. No doubt. It’s not even that close. But as a Blazers fan, if you thought I was going to put in all this work just to rank the Lakers number 1, then you don’t get me at all. Everyone feared the Lebron AD combo last year and with good reason. You basically have two perennial MVP candidates playing together who are also capable of being the best defensive players in basketball. Plus Lebron is so good at making his teammates better, no one thought this wouldn’t work. But the rest of the cast raised questions. Too little ball handling. Too little shooting. Too little shot creation. Just bad fits and mediocre players like Kuzma, KCP and Carusso to go with failed experiments like Howard and JaFail. So, we all wondered would playoff Lebron and AD be enough against a stacked Western conference and what appeared to be an even more stacked Clippers team?

And then they got the one team besides the Clippers who they didn’t want to see in the first round of the Bubble playoffs — My own beloved Blazers. They had no answer for quick, scoring guards and Portland has two of the best. Nurk had returned and gave every indication he would dominate the smaller lineups the Lakers favored. Lebron and AD would be trouble but they had looked mostly good not great leading into the playoffs. Sir Charles predicted a sweep for the Blazers. I quietly thought Portland could pull off the upset. Then Portland won the first game and it seemed really possible. Then, as Lebron was leaving the locker room after Game 1, one of the Lakers’ equipment managers bumped into James and searching for something smart to say, he spouted “weird playing the playoffs so late in the summer, huh?” It seemed like a meaningless exchange, but Lebron had been so focused on how Covid would impact Space Jam 2, he had completely forgotten that the NBA playoffs had started. Having been accidentally reminded, he went home, reconnected to the Matrix, downloaded the playoff Lebron software upgrade and spent the next 2 months destroying fools on his way to another ring. …Just guessing there.

None of the weaknesses described above mattered at all. We were all stupid to doubt James. His resting during the regular season fooled us all into thinking maybe there were now better players in the world, but he’s still the best in the universe and it’s not that close. Whatever those aliens might have in store for us next summer, we’re in good hands with Lebron. ….and so are the Lakers ….again. Sigh.

Oh, and they just got a whole lot better.

Starters

Dennis Schroeder

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Lebron James

Anthony Davis

Marc Gasol

The Lakers needed a point guard…bad. Rondo was fine in the playoffs, but he still can’t shoot and can’t play heavy minutes with the starters, especially over the course of a whole season. Carruso actually played a lot of point and that should never happen to any team ever. He’s not even a good player, much less a good PG where he has none of the requisite skill set. So, even though Schroeder has limitations and is honestly still probably best suited to be a backup, he is a astronomical upgrade over anything the Lakers had last year during the season. He can push it on the break, be a threat to shoot and score from game to game and is a plus defender so long as the guard is not physically strong. Like, he’s not stopping Dame or CP3, but he can be a pest for Curry or Fox or guys like that. Huge huge improvement for the Lakers at a key position of need.

KCP was one of the most disliked Lakers by their own fans. He got too much money. Was supposed to be a 3 and D guy and then couldn’t hit a shot. He couldn’t create and even his Defense fell off. I think the Lakers probably called every team to try to trade him but he made too much money. Then Lebron came in and gave him the Lebron boost. The greatest players have always made their teammates better and I’m not sure there has ever been anyone that does that better than Lebron. And so KCP actually redeemed himself in the playoffs, was a valuable part of their run and got paid again. All thanks to James. The gift that keeps on giving guys NBA careers they couldn’t earn on their own.

There is no question that Lebron is the best player of his generation. There is no question that he is the best player since MJ retired the second time. The only question that remains is whether he is the best player to ever play basketball. I will leave the details of that debate for another day, but I don’t think you can make a case for anyone other than Kareem, Jordan and Lebron. And Lebron may retire holding every meaningful scoring record and ranking ridiculously high in every statistical category. The combination of production plus longevity has just been overwhelming. But he doesn’t go hard in every regular season game anymore. And for that reason he is no longer one of the best defenders in the league over the course of the season. But he is still the best player on planet earth every night in the playoffs. So, all Lebron has to do is be 70% of his normal self for 70ish games and then become an unstoppable force for a couple months on his way to another final.

Think about this. When you consider his size and strength Lebron may be the most dominant athlete in the NBA at his peak and may also be the best passer and highest IQ guy too. Devastating combination. I hate hate hate that he plays for the Lakers so I can never root for him to win ever again. Sucks. LA ruins everything eventually.

And speaking of LA ruining things, they also took away Anthony Davis as a fun guy to root for. I wasn’t sure about this fit at first. I mean, I knew they would be great, but I wasn’t sure if they would be great just because they are individually great or because AD and Lebron could really play together. Turns out eventually it has become the latter. Lebron can elevate anyone at any position and Davis didn’t really need his help. AD was arguably the best defender in the game last year and that was like his 4th best skill. He’s the ultimate weapon at this point as he defies any defensive matchup. He punishes smaller guys inside and no big in the game can stay in front of him. He hits 3s and really scores at will especially when Lebron is there to make sure he gets the ball. If you were building a player in the lab right now, you might end up with AD. The fact that he plays with Lebron is a nightly unfair advantage. it’s really why people like me hate the Lakers. They can suck for a few years, have no plan, never do well in the draft, have terrible management and coaching and it doesn’t matter because all they have to do is wait for the next star or set of stars to want to go Hollywood and they win another title. Meanwhile, my hometown team could do everything right for years and never get out of the first round. The Lakers are a like a rich guy who blows all his money and then finds a winning powerball ticket every couple years and keeps rubbing his wealth in everyone’s face. I’m not a fan….as you can probably tell.

Marc Gasol landing here, even at this age and stage of his career is like the richest of the rich still finding a way to get richer. Gasol’s passing and defense are elite. He can post or play outside because he can shoot. He is not great switching in the pick and roll, but with the Lakers’ other players, who cares? He’s super smart, a great team guy and will make every offensive set better. He can start or play off the bench and the Lakers can essentially decide to rest him most of the season and then use him to kill teams in the playoffs.

Bench

Like everything about this team, the bench is better this year. Motrezl Harrell is a major upgrade and comfortable in the bench role. I was surprised to see Kuzma not get traded as he doesn’t seem to really fit, but he is a very talented player that you can plug in at several positions. Wes Matthews can still play at both ends and replaces Danny Green’s shooting and then they have a bunch of other guys who are serviceable at multiple positions. They still don’t have much depth at point and the shooting comes and goes, but it barely matters. Oh and they have a Morris brother for good measure. More than adequate bench here and I haven’t even mentioned Horton-Tucker’s wild preseason. I don’t think he will actually be much of a factor this season, but who knows? He clearly has the aptitude.

Offseason

Overall, this was a tremendous offseason and I’ve covered most of it above. One little move that hurts a bit in the playoffs is losing Rondo. Rondo, like Lebron, takes it up a notch in the playoffs and several times last season was just the right calming influence and smart ball player to settle things when momentum shifted. Little things like that can win championships. Schroeder is a better player at this stage and will help them more in the regular season, but they might miss playoff Rondo. Losing Avery Bradley hardly matters as the Lakers won without him anyway and replaced him with other similar guys. And adding Montezl, Gasol, Schroeder and Matthews was just ridiculous.

Key to Season

Covid not cancelling the season. If the NBA season makes it the distance, nothing but massive injury will keep the Lakers from rolling to another Title with relative ease. It’s almost enough to make me want to see the season cancelled. Almost. Instead, I will just try to avoid their games as much as possible and pretend they don’t exist until the Blazers are eliminated.

Misc

The Lakers just experienced the shortest offseason in NBA history. After seeing them demolish the Mavs tonight, it doesn’t appear to matter. That said, it will be interesting if Lebron shows any signs of fatigue late in the season. Since he comes from another planet and his alien DNA allows him to avoid human things like injuries and exhaustion, I don’t imagine it will be an issue.

The Lakers lost Danny Green and got Wes Matthews. Interestingly their stats last year were nearly identical in every major category. They are statistically the same player.

Sneaker Note

I was going to write some things about Lebron’s signature line and Kuzma signing with Puma and how AD getting his own shoe seems overdue, but having to write all this crap about the Lakers winning and dominating made me sick to my stomach so I’ll move on to more pleasant topics.

Only the top teams in each conference remain. That post will be coming shortly.