2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 13
It’s going to be very tough for me to not let tomorrow’s Blazer game strongly impact my review of the team, but I’ll do my best. It’s only one game and I think there are going to be a bunch of weird games and lopsided results in this first couple weeks and teams move at different paces figuring out new pieces. It’s only one game.
It’s only one game.
Below is the next installment in my NBA Preview. only the top two teams in each conference remain. To see the earlier posts check out https://stumptown1.medium.com/
East
3. Boston Celtics
Summary
I should have written each of these pieces before determining the final ranking because as I write about the Celtics I am talking myself out of them being this high. I love Brad Stevens even if he looks 11 and think that Tatum took the superstar leap last year. But as strange as this might sound, I think they may have gone from up and coming team with a bunch of momentum to “window closed” without playing a single game. When we left the Celtics in the bubble they looked like they could beat anyone but needed another year of seasoning or maybe some tweaks to the bench to take the next step. But then they lost Hayward for nothing and now Kemba may not be right for a while, if ever. And just like that, the whole outlook changes drastically. This team will be well coached and still has a ton of talent. But after seeing Brooklyn in the opener today, they seem way better than this Celtics team and that’s a concern. I think Tatum will continue to be great and there are other nice pieces here, but if Kemba misses much time, this team could fall several places and need to consider rebuilding.
And that means, I wonder if they struggle out of the gate, if a Smart, Brown and picks and pieces trade offer materializes for Harden. We’ll see. Unless that happens, I’m officially taking Boston off my contender list.
Starters
Kemba Walker
Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown
Jason Tatum
Daniel Theis
Well, at least that was the intent. It looks like Jeff Teague will be their starter while Walker gets healthy. When healthy, Walker can be a tier two PG who can score and distribute and lead. At peak, I’d rather have him leading my team than Kyrie just because he’s so much less a prima donna. But I’m not sure we’ll get back to that peak as the word out of Boston is not encouraging. Teague is a better than average back up at this stage and will be able to hold the fort, but you lose one of your most dynamic offensive players for a guy who caps out at solid. In an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference, that could hurt.
Rounding out the all back-up PG backcourt, Smart probably starts even though he is really more of a backup himself. He’s sort of the quintessential backup in fact and putting him as a starter is going to weaken the bench. But I’m not sure they have a better option. Smart is who he is because he is a great on the ball defender and gives your team toughness every time he plays. He is a capable offensive player but occasionally takes more shots than he should given his limitations. If he were a knockdown shooter he’d be one of the most coveted players in the game, but his lack of consistency lowers his ceiling. He’s important to what the Celtcis do and their identity, but also may be the guy they have to trade if they need a midseason boost.
Jaylen Brown seems better at the 2 but I’m not sure he can really get minutes there on this team. Luckily for the Cs he is super versatile. Brown has become a profoundly underrated player as he is one of the best/strongest/most switchable wing defenders out there and can come back and dunk on your head or hit the 3 in your eye. Love his game. Love his fit. After a somewhat disappointing career at Cal and entry into the league, he is now among the best 2 way wings out there.
Jason Tatum is one of the best players in the NBA. Full stop.
He struggled trying to figure out how to be the next Kobe or KD but now he just seems more comfortable with his own game. Mid post, perimeter, off the catch, off the dribble, even some low post. He’s a phenomenal player and finally the clear focal point of this team. He’s not on the Lebron, Kawhi, KD, GA level for wings, but he’s right below that with PG and believe me that’s a massive compliment.
Daniel Theis is, on his best day, mostly serviceable. They have a few guys on their bench who can play minutes at the 5 and they will try all of them. Losing Kanter actually hurts quite a bit and they are left with OK bigs who could be decent or terrible on a given night. Tristan Thompson should never be as indispensable as he might be to this Celtics team. This could prove a significant weakness as putting their best 5 guys out makes them too small. Unlike a guy like AD in LA or even Draymond in GS, Tatum can’t stretch to the 5 because he’s already stretching to the 4. This is part of the reason I think this ranking is too high.
Bench
I don’t care what else happens with this team I want to see some lineups with Carson Edwards at 5’11” (at most) with Tacko Fall at 7’5” (at least). That’s some Mugsy and Manute stuff right there. Actually, I think Edwards can really play and a backcourt off the bench with him and Smart could be trouble. Teague will be good in the backup role once he gets back there. I think Pritchard could play some minutes this year. Thompson and the two Williams bigs need to be at their best and I actually like Robert Williams as a project. I think they will run a pretty long rotation only because the bench is going to have to do it by committee without a standout. Losing Hayward and Kanter made this team quite shallow and so a bunch of “wait who is that?” kind of players are going to have to step up for this team to meet expectations.
Offseason
I suppose losing Klay again means that GS lost the offseason, but a very close second place was Boston and honestly, they might be first…or last…or you know. Their offseason was a disaster. Hayward, who could do everything for them on offense from initiating the offense to closing out games is gone. Their scoring backup big is gone. Their starting PG is hurt. I liked drafting Pritchard as I think he’s a guy who can stick, but you’re talking about a 20mpg back up PG if you’re lucky. They added nothing that indicates they will improve. I’m sorry but adding Tristan Thompson and his old knees and inflated contract is not going to be the key here. If Tatum and Brown continue to grow, maybe it won’t matter too much. But if this team struggles, they will be the focus of a bunch of trade talk.
Key to season
Kemba Walker. If he gets healthy and right, they have the talent to compete in the East. If he misses a bunch of time and/or has lost a step upon return, this team will be bounced in the first round.
Misc
This is my favorite destination for Harden. Not only does it get him out of the West, but I think playing for Stevens and with Tatum could be perfect for him.
Sneaker Note
I think Nike is going to regret giving Paul George his own shoe right before Tatum came along and proved himself more worthy. Also, the Boston Celtics Jordan 1 is one of the all time greats. Incredible details and great color combo. Finally, I need Converse to retro the “Weapon” that Bird and Magic wore immediately. Why has this not happened already? Who do I need to talk to?
West
3. Dallas Mavericks
Summary
Too high you think? Maybe. Not nearly as good as the Clippers? You could be right. But this team looked like the second most dangerous team in the bubble many nights and they might be significantly better. You think new kid on the block Luka was a killer? Wait till you see “oh now I get it” Luka playing with MVP Curry level confidence. They could still be a year away and like any team injuries or Covid could derail them, but no one will want to face the Mavs in the playoffs. And Luka appears to be a drive to destroy away from being the closest things we’ve seen to Larry Legend since the Legend himself. If they get healthy, the Mavs will be scary.
Starters
Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Josh Richardson
Kristaps Porzingis
Dwight Powell
Old guys like me want to have a point guard. We want the old 5 positions on a basketball court. But players like Lebron and Luka and even someone like Harden make it really tough. Is Luka a 1 or a 3? Or a 4? What are the criteria? Truth is it doesn’t matter. The offense is going through Luka and his extraordinary ability to breakdown a defense without dominant athleticism. His passing and the different ways he can score are already making people say he looks like Bird or Magic or Lebron. He punishes teams for guarding him with smaller guys by taking them down low as he is already one of the best post players in basketball. And if you put a bigger guy on him, he’s just going to torch them with crossovers, step backs and pick and roll. He is the biggest matchup problem in the NBA not named Giannis or James. And, now that he’s sort of arrived, if the Mavs are a top 4 team, he will absolutely win MVP if all he does is play like last year. If he improves at all, and I expect he will, he’s a lock. Go ahead and call your sports book. There is a very small list of guys who just having them makes you a near lock to make the playoffs. James, GA, KD, Kawhi, Dame…and I think this is the year you add Luka to that list. He’s that good. Also, find anything I wrote before his draft so I don’t have to keep saying I told you so. My only hope is that he matures from being a goofy kid to being a killer. If he does that, there is no stopping him ever.
Not totally sure Hardaway Jr. will start, but he seems like a nice fit. Can shoot well enough, can handle and doesn’t get in the way. He played well off Luka last year and I expect he will again. They don’t need him to be great every game, just not suck and be great a few times a year. He can do that.
Listen, I love Seth Curry as a shooter off the bench to stretch the D and see if he can get hot. But he is no Josh Richardson. Richardson can be a legit number 2 guy on a given night and plays both ends at a high level. His athleticism, defense and playmaking make this team immediately much much better compared to anyone getting those minutes last year. He’s not a star, but he could have star like impact on an already good team. I don’t think he fit well with Philly because that team doesn’t fit well. Dallas is perfect for him.
And that brings us to the most important guy on the team. Not the most valuable, but the most important. Luka is the star, the franchise, the number 1 guy. But Kristaps is the guy who determines if you are sneaking into the 8th seed or getting homecourt advantage. The Unicorn will determine the difference between solid and great. The skill is there. The fit is there. The IQ and attitude are there. The only ability he lacks is the one that makes the rest of them meaningless if you don’t have it: Availability. If he can get and stay healthy, he is the perfect pick and roll partner for Luka and a more dangerous Toni Kukoc who plays D. If he stays banged up, this team is a 7 seed at best. But if he plays all year, anything except beating the Lakers is possible.
No one will game plan for Dwight Powell, but he is a really important piece. He doesn’t put up big numbers but does everything right. He’s in the right place, he recovers and rotates on D. He gets some rebounds and makes the shots he should and only take the ones he should. One of the real secrets of the NBA is how important it is to have guys like this on your team. If you surround your stars only with other lower tier stars or guys who think they are stars or guys who constantly try to do too much, you won’t win. You win with guys like Powell surrounding greatness.
Bench
I like this bench. Klieber, Burks, Brunson, Cauley-Stein and Boban can all eat up minutes and shoot and defend and rebound for you. Plus they plug and play with the other starters around the stars so you can play anyone who gets hot and not lose a step. There is no 6th man of the year candidate here, but there are a bunch of smart players who play together and hit big shots. Like most teams, they can’t afford to lose their stars and they could use another playmaking scorer off the bench, but overall, I like this bunch.
Offseason
The Curry/Richardson trade was great for Dallas as I said (and might actually be good for Philly too). The rest was pretty boring. They added some small pieces, but are mostly running back the same team. One interesting note to me at least, I think their first round pick Josh Green could be a good one. He was a heralded Freshman out of Australia by way of Arizona and combines fantastic athleticism with great defense. He was a scorer in college but not a great shooter and from the couple games I saw, not a great ball handler. But if he focuses on D at least at first, I think he could be a Kelly Oubre type player and given the limitations of other Dallas players on the defensive end, I think he could get some minutes.
Key to season
Kristaps’ health. As I said above, Luka is their guy, but I expect him to only be better. Kristaps is the real deal but only when he plays. He needs to get his sightings in an NBA game up past the claimed sightings of actual unicorns for this team to come close to potential.
Misc
JJ Barea was the starting PG on the all Blazer Killer team of this generation. If he played the Blazers every game, he would be a top 5 player of all time. He seems like a good dude but I will not miss him at all. I mean I guess he could still get picked up somewhere but I kinda hope it’s by the Blazers so (A) he could provide some PG depth and (B) he can stop destroying my favorite team in a way he does to no other.
Sneaker Note
Luka signed with Jordan brand and I think that is a huge get. He’s charismatic, will move shoes over seas and barring injury is going to be a massive star here in the US. It looks like he’s going to wear the Jordan 35 which I’m not that crazy about. I wonder how long they can wait before giving him his own shoe. Looks like draft rival Young is going to beat him to that one. The Chris Paul/Deron Williams like debate over Doncic and Young is going to be a good time for years. I’m riding with Luka but Young has already outperformed my expectations. Let’s just hope Young’s signature Adidas outperforms their other basketball guys because Jordan’s track record in sneakers is…real nice.
