2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 12

East

4. Philadelphia 76ers

Summary

This team is beginning to have the same feel as the Lob City Clippers from a few years back. That team had CP3, Griffin, JJ, Jordan and a bunch of other talent and yet they never could quite get to the really big games. Injuries mostly, but also chemistry issues and playing under their own talent in big situations kept that team from ever reaching its potential. Now here we are with a similar team and even the same head coach. Tons of talent that should work with each other. One star loves to pass. The other loves to score. Both stars can impact the game on D. They even have a 3rd star that can be their best player on a given night. They have floor spreading shooters and maybe the best center in the game. Oh and their “PG” is 6’10”!! And yet…4 might be too high honestly.

In my mind, the issues are pretty simple and I’ll discuss them in more detail below. Embiid can’t stay healthy and is too much in his own head to dominate. Simmons isn’t a point guard. They have no glue guys. So far, they have fixed none of those issues from last year. I say so far because the prospect of a Harden trade still looms. Harden says he would like to go to Philly. Philly responded by saying “sure, but you can’t have Simmons or Embiid.” The Rockets then stopped calling. But now the word is that Simmons could be available, but I’m also hearing the Rockets are still not excited. Here’s the thing though, if I were running the show in Philly, I would trade Embiid. You would have to give up less because of his perceived value, but he is brittle and I think if you could move Simmons to be a Draymond Green like player, Harden and Simmons could be lethal.

But the Sixers are going to overthink this and mess it up. Just you watch.

Starters

Ben Simmons

Seth Curry

Danny Green

Tobias Harris

Joel Embiid

Simmons is a gifted passer with next gen court vision. He has great handles especially for a guy taller than most power forwards. He is a fantastic finisher around the basket and has great overall athleticism. He is also a handful on defense and able to guard all 5 positions on nights when he is truly committed to that end. But he can’t shoot. Like, at all. He is honestly one of the worst shooters in the NBA regardless of position in part because he flat refuses to do it and in part because apparently none of his coaches ever cared enough to fix a broken, broken shot.

If Simmons were playing PF surrounded by shooting wings and maybe one big, then you could hide his shooting weakness. But if you play him at PG, then he spends most of his time on the perimeter which allows his defender to sag and clog the driving and passing lanes. He can’t be the ball handler on pick and roll because you just go under the screen and mess the whole play up if you are on D.

Don’t get me wrong. Simmons has the skills to play PG and is probably their best ball handler and distributor. But his shooting dooms him. And, playing PG pulls him away from the basket where his ability to rebound and outlet quickly and accurately or start the break himself is minimized. Simmons needs to be playing the 4 with 3 shooters and Embiid. He needs to operate out of both post positions where he is a matchup nightmare. He could play high/low with Embiid or pick apart defenses the way Draymond has done for years in GS. He could even play some small ball 5 and create even more mismatches. The other shooters would help compensate for his poor shooting and you could keep the floor spread. Until Philly realizes this, we will never see MVP level Simmons. And I’m not sure this really happens unless they trade Embiid and look at what the Bucks have done with GA.

Seth Curry’s addition was a bit of a head scratcher. Curry is a great shooter and an underrated play maker. He’s a good passer and a sneaky good ball handler. He cuts and moves well and uses screens, not as well as his brother, but still very well. But he is overmatched every night on D and is pretty one dimensional on offense when it comes down to it. Because of his shooting he fits this team well, but he is a step down from Josh Richardson, the player they traded. They are banking on Curry’s one skill being important enough to make up for losing Richardson’s many skills and far superior D. Philly needed shooting but I don’t think they get enough from Curry on D to keep him on the floor enough.

Getting Danny Green is the same theory as Curry at work just basically doubling down. Green was once a very good defender but has lost much of that lock down mode. He is still a very good shooter and has proven he can be a quality addition to a championship team several times including as recently as last year. But LA fans spent most of the year grumbling about Green because his once knock down jumper suddenly became somewhat untrustworthy and thereby robbed him of most of his value. Green would be an undersized 3 but with Embiid and Simmons, size isn’t really a huge deal. I think there will be nights when Green and Seth are both cooking when the Sixers will be very tough. I also think that’s 40% of your starting lineup who don’t impact the game when they aren’t making 3s and that could be very problematic.

Tobias Harris is the forgotten star of this team. Dude is a professional bucket getter. He shoots, posts, drives and aggressively seeks his shot mostly in a good way. He is sort of a poor man’s Peak Melo without the overwhelming ego. The only issue is that he doesn’t bring it every night and has an unfortunate habit of disappearing for long stretches or entire games. Some of this is made up for by being the 3rd option, but it is frustrating after seeing him look unguardable at times. But he is the reason this team is a borderline contender just as much as their 2 big stars because he is a more consistent offensive player than either of them and makes their job easier by winning his matchup at least on one end of the floor. He’s a minus defender and doesn’t have the highest basketball IQ. He doesn’t make plays for other people and as I said can vanish at times. So, he’s a mixed bag but still very important for this team overall. Easy to forget, he needs to do more reminding that he can play at an all star level.

Joel Embiid is a mystery. Sometimes he’s fun, goofy Shaq, just dominating on and off the court acting like a big kid who is still better than everyone else. Sometimes his footwork looks like Hakeem and his shooting like Dirk. Sometimes you watch him play and he seems to casually destroy the competition. Sometimes. Then there are the times when he gets lazy on D and on O. He fails to run the floor on D and takes too many 3s on O. Then there are the times when he can’t play because of many nagging injuries. Then there are the times when he pays too much attention to what the guys on TNT think of him. Then there are the times when he gets into his own head and can’t lead his team. He should be the Sixers’ best player by a mile and sometimes he is. But just as often he’s hurt or being a giant baby.

One massive problem for this team is leadership. Neither Simmons nor Embiid are natural leaders, but their status as superstars makes it tough for anyone else to fill that void. We will see if Doc can do it this year. I love Embiid when he’s healthy and engaged. The problem is that doesn’t happen enough for this team to be great. Will this be the year?

Bench

Dwight Howard was a nice get as he can let Embiid rest some. He still has enough in the tank to be a problem at both ends. Ferguson is underrated and still young. Korkmaz is solid as another shooter. Thybulle may be their most important guy as a 3 and D guy with emphasis on the D. They need him to come in and lock someone up and he could even get a look as a starter. Then they have a bunch of guys like Milton and Scott and O’Quinn that provide solid, though not great depth. There is no one on this bench who scares teams or can carry the scoring load even for short bursts which puts a lot of pressure on the starters. The one guy I see maybe able to turn that around is rookie Tyrese Maxey out of Kentucky. He’s fast and dynamic with the ball. I think he slid a little too much in the draft and could help this year especially if they would let him play PG with Simmons off the ball. It’s tough to know for sure without summer league or a real camp, but keep your eye on Maxey.

Offseason

They lost Josh Richardson and picked up Curry in a move that was an overall downgrade. They drafted Maxey which I liked and picked up Howard who frankly I am surprised left the Lakers which was also good. They also got Danny Green who is just ok now. Overall, I think they are slightly worse from these moves rather than better. The real question is, would the Rockets take Maxey, Simmons and a ton of draft picks for Harden. If so, the Sixers’ ceiling goes up 2 or 3 stories and they could end up winning the East.

Key to season

Health…especially for Embiid. That guy needs to play more minutes and miss fewer games. They are night and day a different team without him.

Misc

Really curious to see what Doc does with this team. Rivers has been a good coach for a long time but as I said, never really crossed over with those Clipper teams I mentioned earlier. If he could get more creative with Simmons or talk someone into letting him pair Simmons with Harden, this team could be very dangerous.

Sneaker Note

Under Armor signed Embiid seemingly misunderstanding that bigs don’t move shoes and then gave him a shoe that looks like a poor man’s James Harden Adidas. UA did manage to give Embiid a better shoe than the guy who should be selling all the sneakers (the other Curry brother), but it still sucks. In other news, Nike did a special blazer with red and plaid for Simmons and it is pretty great. Here’s hoping Nike does more “PE”s combining its athletes with their lifestyle shoes.

West

4. LA Clippers

Summary

Perfect that I’m talking about the Clippers in both teams’ previews. Doc is gone and now they can see if their problems last year were just getting to know each other or run deeper. Honestly, when I saw this team play at the beginning of the year I thought they might win 70 games. They were one of the best defensive teams I’ve seen in years and their bench looked better than most teams’ starters. Plus they had Kawhi who had cemented himself as one of just a handful of guys who alone makes you a contender. AND, they then added PG who is one of the few wings who can dominate at both ends and still play with or without the ball.

But it didn’t really work. Montrez and Sweet Lou were incredible together off the bench but they didn’t fit with anyone else, including George and Kawhi which meant it was virtually impossible to have their 5 best players on the floor at the same time. They didn’t have a real point guard who could run the offense, distribute and keep the floor spaced. Patrick Beverly is a pest on defense but a liability on offense as he is neither a playmaker nor a shooter. So, they needed better guard play, better shooting, better chemistry and more time together to work on fit. They got some great new pieces I’ll discuss below and lost at least one key from last year to their cross-town rivals.

But the real loss might have been not signing Rajon Rondo. Rondo is a terrible shooter and not the player he once was. But as he proved for the other LA team last year, he is a difference maker in the playoffs and seems like the perfect orchestrator to have PG and Kawhi in the right spots to close out games. It also would have been a “suck it” move to the Lakers. But they whiffed and that could mean more than any of the other higher profile moves they made.

All of that said, this could be the best team in the West and a finals team for sure. They are stacked and should be top 5 on both ends of the floor. They are only this low because they aren’t as good as their LA neighbors and I don’t think they did enough in the offseason to address their issues.

Starters

Patrick Beverly

Paul George

Nic Batum

Kawhi Leonard

Serge Ibaka

Beverly is a menace on D, but nearly useless on offense. And he takes up space where they could really use a shooter or a floor general. This was a regular weakness last year that did not improve by keeping Pat Bev. It does mean their perimeter D will be second to none, but I expected them to get a PG upgrade and it never happened.

Paul George was either injured or just isn’t as good as we thought. He played under talent in the playoffs, but has also showed at times enough talent to be an MVP level player. If MVP PG shoes up, this team could be a finals team easily. But that’s a big if.

I don’t know if they will start Batum, but they should. Probably at point guard. Nic can handle, defend smaller guards and knock down some 3s. He would give this team incredible length and flexibility on defense and could take on some of the ball handling duties. He’s on the downside of his career, but I think this could be a sneaky good pick up for this team.

Kawhi is an annual contender for MVP but for his insistence on load management. But if he played more, he’s as good as anyone in the game. He may be the best perimeter defender in the NBA and is a clutch scorer and able shooter. He alone makes this team a contender and pairing him with George should have made them the favorites. But they didn’t quite gel the way Lebron and AD did and so they choked to a lesser, but better coached and more unified Nuggets team in the playoffs.

Ibaka is really a 4 but he’ll play 5 for this team. This is a massive upgrade for a team who played with a place filler at center to start games but didn’t have a consistent go to center at the end of games after they couldn’t figure out a way to work Montrez into that role. Ibaka is a champion, a seasoned vet, a great defender and a good shooter. He should work perfectly with Kawhi and George and make an already scary defensive team better.

Bench

Last year their bench was basically Lou Williams and Montrez and whatever. Lou and Trez were so great together it didn’t really matter. They came in and just killed teams with pick and role and were often a more potent offensive tandem than the stars in the starting lineup. But they didn’t really fit with the starters as they only worked with the ball and having them play with George and Kawhi turned those MVP level players into onlookers. So, while their bench was great last year it was also part of the problem. So they needeed to bring in more versatile players, more shooting and more PG leadership. The results are a mixed bag. Luke Kenard is a perfect fit off the bench or with the starters. Great shooter and underrated in other phases, this guy immediately makes them better. Now Zubac becomes a very useful back up. Reggie Jackson and the Morris brother are both capable players. The bench seems less scary without Harrell, but with Lou and the group listed above, they are deep enough to mix and match lineups and infuse scoring, shooting and energy.

Offseason

They did everything I said they needed to except find PG help. But adding Batum, Kenard and Ibaka, even if they did lose Montrez and missed on Rondo, makes this a very very good offseason for a team that might already have been the second best team in the NBA. But I suspect not adding a true point guard may cap their potential.

Key to season

PG and Kawhi fitting better, staying healthy and closing games. These guys are as good as any wings in the game but they both have had health issues. Bigger than that though, was that I never felt like they really played as a team. So the question is, was last year Lebron’s first year in Miami where he and Wade had to feel each other out? Or were the problems we saw real signs that PG’s game doesn’t really mesh well with Kawhi? As good as they are I’m betting its the former which means I have them ranked way too low.

Misc

I like Lue’s chances of making this work. He has a good history working with stars and uber talented teams. I think he is a good fit here.

Sneaker Note

I don’t know why PG and NASA did a collab but they produced some beautiful shoes. The white, orange and blue pairs are especially nice. PG’s latest shoe with the lace shroud feels like a cheaply made shoe to me, but others have given better reports. Still, I don’t love it or the leaked picks of his next pair which just seems boring. Personally, I don’t think PG deserves his own signature Nike, but check out the NASA collabs all the same. Meanwhile for a boring guy, Kawhi is doing some fun things at NB. They are officially back in basketball thanks to Kawhi and have some fun colorways on his first two shoes. Personally, I don’t think they have quite found the perfect combo yet, but I like where they are headed. Also, Kawhi’s 327s are amazing. Love those.