2020–21 NBA Preview: Part 10
To start, I have to say a couple things about the last post about the Hawks and Suns. First, this morning they announced that Trae Young is getting his own signature shoe which of course would have been a great sneaker note, but came a day too late. Hopefully they do a better job with his shoe which needs to be called “Ice Trae” for sure, than they have with the other Adidas basketballers. Second, I did leave off E’Twaun Moore from the Sun’s bench which doesn’t seem like that big a deal, but it is worth mentioning that he is the kind of guy who fits in with any lineup and plays D on multiple positions. He’s a nice piece for them and shouldn’t have been left out.
Ok, now on to the 6 seeds…
East
6. Toronto Raptors
Summary
I have to say, as interesting as the last two teams were, the teams I have projected as the 6 seeds are kinda boring.
I really thought Toronto would see a big drop off losing the Claw last year but they surprised and impressed everyone by barely missing a step. Basically they went from Title contender or even favorite to “just” a really good playoff team. And that’s really the difference between all the teams at this level. There are just 3–4 guys in the league that make any team they are on contenders to win it all and if you don’t have one of those guys, it will take injuries or luck even for the really good teams. Now with no Kawhi, the Raptors are really good, but don’t have a realistic chance of bringing another ring to the North. I’m guessing this is a fun team to root for if you are a Raptors fan as it is filled with good guys who play hard, but for everyone else this team will be easy to skip when they come on TV.
Starters
Kyle Lowry
Fred VanVleet
OG Anunoby
Pascal Siakam
Aaron Baynes
Lowry is still really good and he seemed to get over some of his playoff choking the last couple years. That’s great, but he’s also on the downside of his career and benefits greatly from having basically another PG play alongside to take some of the burden. He’s tough, a leader, and someone who will surely go down as an all time fav for Raptor fans. But he’s not going to carry them much past the first round and needs to start shifting more into a facilitator mode. Even still, he is still one of the best guards in the East.
VanVleet was really the big signing this year and the team overpaid him and they had to. He’s really more of a top end back up PG but because Lowry can guard bigger guards, Fred can start and was their most dangerous offensive player in the Bubble. He does everything well and even makes an effort on D. He is not a franchise player, but like CJ in Portland he is extremely valuable and effective. Plus he plays well with Lowry. Good fit and player here.
OG is one half of a really exciting up and coming forward pair. He stepped up huge last year and looks to be a solid starter for years to come. Good defender and rebounder for his size. Allows the Raps to be versatile on D and with their lineups. He’s exactly the kind of player nearly every NBA team is looking for. He won’t dominate a game or ever likely be a superstar, but he is a great complimentary piece.
Pascal Siakam was asked to make a huge jump last year that few can make. He had to go from riding the coattails of a superstar to becoming a star himself while facing the focus of the defense. And he nailed it. He’s a prototypical modern NBA player. He has all the skills but is also freakishly long and a plus athlete. He seems content to let the guards dominate the ball which helps the team overall, but is not afraid to try to take over when need be. Again, he would be a great addition to any team and Toronto is very fortunate to have him. His versatility on offense and D keeps the Raptors from sliding as they continue to lose key pieces. He may have to play some 5 this year in small ball lineups to get the best players on the floor which will be a new challenge, but I think he’s up for it. He’s really like a poor man’s Giannis and I mean that in the nicest possible way.
I have appreciated the Raptors apologists trying to spin the Baynes signing as somehow making up for Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka but make no mistake this is a massive downgrade. Baynes is a nice 15 mpg guy who will play tough D, grab some boards and incredibly hit some 3s. He is a solid backup 5 and a marginal starter so long as you don’t really have to rely on him down the stretch or to play heavy minutes. See the problem? I don’t mind Baynes with this unit, but it explains why I said Siakam may have to play some minutes as a small ball 5. And they will really miss Gasol’s passing….at lot.
Bench
The bench features a bunch of guys who are “meh.” Some of these guys can play, but there appears to be a pretty massive dropoff from the starters. Expect the first unit to play heavy, heavy minutes and this team is officially on Covid watch as missing time from the starters will be an issue. I like Powell alright, though he’s a bit overpaid. Len has never developed like the league had hoped, but he can play a bit. I like Bembry in limited minutes. But depth looks like an issue.
Offseason
This was a rough offseason for Toronto. Their priority was signing Fed VanVleet so at least they got that done. But then they lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Even now in the later stage of their career, both are valuable pieces with tons of good experience and skills on both ends. No one on this roster can replace what those guys do.
I’m not sure the two draft picks, Malachi Flynn and Jalen Harris are too much to get excited about. Both project as scoring guards. Flynn is a skilled and smart player who slipped in the draft due to concerns about athleticism. Harris is a bit on the other side of the spectrum and had an up and down season last year in college. Like a lot of later picks, there is always the possibility they will be great, but I doubt very much that either help this year.
Finally, they also signed Chris Boucher, the former Duck who is a really nice find and good fit for this team. I expect him to be in the league a long time as a roll player but I think his ceiling is not much higher than that.
No matter how you look at it, this team should be more vulnerable than last year and it is even possible to see a dramatic drop to even lower in this ranking.
Key to season
This becoming Siakam’s team. He needs to be their best player nightly and if he can assert himself like that, then they may have their next franchise piece. It has been Lowry’s team for a long time and VanVleet will likely compete as the “closer.” But Siakam needs to take yet another step to allow this team to keep winning while they transition from contender to up and comer. If that doesn’t happen, they will likely have a nice season and lose in the first round and look at blowing things up even more next year.
Misc
I think Nurse is a great coach that will, along with their talent, keep this team from really going off a cliff. They remind me of the Spurs a bit like that. Pop just won’t let that team suck. I think Nurse will do the same for the Raptors.
Sneaker Note
Drake is getting his own subrand at Nike! Nocta it’s called because…it doesn’t matter. But I think this is pretty brilliant really. Drake has hit that magic point of music, pop culture, sports and sneakers. He’s like a mascot for the Raps and also randomly for Kentucky. He raps/sings about shoes and basketball. It was actually news that he might abandon the Swoosh for the three stripes. And his OVO jordan collabs are some of the most popular, hyped and sought after sneakers out there. I’ve never been a huge fan of his music, but I think Nike got this right. He’s got a ways to go before he’s competing with Kanye, but if you have to pick someone to help you eat into that market, you could do a lot worse.
West
6. Utah Jazz
Summary
Now we’re getting to the teams in the west I don’t even want to write about because they come with too many memories of wars with the Blazers. I don’t like the Jazz. I don’t like that their name could not be a worse fit for a team from Utah. I don’t their fans. I don’t like the Mailman or Stockton. I’m just not on board. But, they are good. And they should be even better this year. Last year was supposed to be their year, but it got derailed by injuries and Conley’s surprising struggle to adjust to the new team. But now their pieces are back and Spida Mitchell will be a year better and hungrier. He’s already a killer and seems to still be on the rise. In the West, the Jazz feel like a lock for the playoffs but they also seem well short of being a contender. They could beat any team on any night but if feels like there are, well about 5 teams that I would feel better about in a series. I think they are also still capable of getting beat by anyone on a given night and that’s part of the issue. They have vets, but their best player is still a kid and that puts them at a disadvantage against the best of the best.
Starters
Mike Conley
Donovan Mitchell
Bojan Bogdanovic
Joe Ingles
Rudy Gobert
Last year, this was supposed to be the team that got the perfect players to fit their biggest needs. But it didn’t really take shape like that and it started with Conley. Conley seemed like the perfect running mate for Mitchell. Smart, good passer, good defender, can play off the ball, no ego issues, good leader. All of that is true, but then he just didn’t play very well. His shot abandoned him and I think his confidence followed. Plus, as good as the Jazz can be on D, they aren’t the same sort of physical knock you around as a unit team that Conley thrived in. Plus, Mitchell has the ball in his hands maybe more than we thought and that relegated Conley to a floor spreading shooter and when his shot was cold, that made him less valuable. And I think he’s lost a step on D. But I don’t think he’s done and I bet he has a bounce back year now that the team is as envisioned and he has a year of working out the kinks behind him. To stay up in the West, Utah fans have to pray I’m right about that.
I’m not sure what there is left to say about Mitchell. The knock on him was that he wilted in big games at times, especially in the playoffs. But he put that to bed in the bubble. He absolutely exploded in the first round against a very tough Denver team. He had games of 57, 44, 30 and even when he only had 22 he was still his team’s best option. The Jazz lost despite Mitchell not because of him. He was everything you would want in a young alpha closer. Sometimes you just need more help and face a more talented opponent. (see, e.g., Dame’s career). I think Mitchell may already be the most underrated superstar in the league. But that’s how it goes. Until you win deep into the playoffs, you don’t get into the top tier. This should be the year for Utah. If they do get the 6th seed, whoever is the 3 will have all they can handle thanks to Mitchell.
This could be the year of the Bogdanovic in the NBA. Bogdan was one of the biggest FAs out there and had a weird path to Atlanta where he will be playing on one of the most exciting and watched young teams out there. And in the East he will have the chance to really make a mark. Meanwhile, Bojan was supposed to be that other wing scorer and floor spreader that Utah desperately needed but went down to injury. He should be healthy and should make Utah terrifying when they run pick and roll. You can’t trap Mitchell because they have too many outlets. Everyone was excited or scared at this move last year. Now we get to be reminded why.
Ingles looks like he wandered into the gym straight from one of my own pick up games. He’s a big guy who wants to launch 3s all day and looks like he’s 45, like everyone else I play with. But looks can be deceiving and this guy is actually really good. He’s more than just a shooter though he can really do that. He plays hard, plays tough D and gives this team a bit of an edge. He will never dominate, but he will break some team’s spirit as they have to leave him open to cover the scarier players. Great fit here, though his lack of size and rebounding does make this team a bit small.
Rudy Gobert is not their best player, but he may be their most irreplaceable. Whether you prefer the “The Stifle Tower” or “The French Rejection” or any other nick name, this guy remains one of the best rim protectors and defensive rebounders in the game. He will always be among the contenders for DPOY and makes this team really really tough. Without him, the wings have to lock down and give more minutes to less offensively proficient guys which is why I say he is indispensable. Without Rudy, the Jazz are still a very good team. But with him, they are a borderline contender.
Bench
Derrick Favors is back!! Yay?? Everyone seems to like this homecoming, but I think this dude was washed years ago. The league passed him by and while he was ok last year, I would expect no better than ok this year. Useful bench big, but I don’t get all the excitement. Jordan Clarkson is a great bench scorer and perfect fit here. Royce O’Neale can’t figure out how to spell his last name correctly but is also a good sub. Azubuike is talented enough to play this year, but he’s a young developing big who’s best days are a few years away. I don’t think this will be more than an 8 man rotation really, but they have enough to support the starters assuming they stay healthy. It’s a solid if not flashy bench.
Offseason
Well, they brought back Favors and resigned Clarkson. Both were decent enough moves though I was surprised they gave Clarkson so much money. He’s a one trick pony who can score on anyone, but isn’t a great shooter and thus doesn’t play off ball that great and plays absolutely no defense. I think their moves were enough to stay where they were but I don’t see where they’ve improved. The biggest offseason move was really just getting Bojan healthy.
I actually liked their draft. Azubuike could have slid a bit with people chasing wings and better shooters, but I think he can help now and maybe provides a bit of insurance if things aren’t all the way patched up between Mitchell and Gobert. He probably would be outmatched this year, but I like it as help down the road. I also think Elijah Hughes was a sneaky good second round pick. Really good athlete and can make a difference if he commits himself to defense. Cost them nothing, but I think there is a chance he pans out really nicely.
Key to season
Conley figuring out how to play at a near all star level again so Mitchell can do his thing with less burden to run the offense or make plays for others and without having to D up the best guard. Conley needs to be on the floor and needs to be the Chris Paul light that he became in Memphis. If he can do that, as he started doing toward the end last year, then this team’s ceiling goes way up. If he’s just not going to be that guy, they will still be good, but probably done in the first round again.
Misc
The gradient Jazz alternate jerseys are among the best in the league. I think that’s an unpopular opinion, but I love them. The black version they are introducing this year, ….not so much.
Sneaker Note
As with all the Adidas signature shoes, Mitchell’s shoes mostly suck. They look terrible, could never be worn off the court and even their themed shoes (eg Spiderman) look like something from the kids section at Target. Just terrible. You know what else is interesting about sneakers as it relates to Utah? Absolutely nothing. We’ll leave it at that.
